The access of people to food and services in Sudan is being severely impacted by the combined effects of conflict, economic instability, climatic shocks, and poor harvests.
On April 15, violent clashes between Sudan’s military and its dangerous paramilitary group broke out in the country’s capital, Khartoum and other areas, sparking concerns about the possibility of a wider conflict in Sudan. Some claim that rationing of food and water has started because telecom networks have grown unreliable.
The conflict between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) of General Abdelfatah El-Burhan has already resulted in hundreds, if not thousands, of casualties and has the potential to escalate into a full-fledged, regionalized civil war. On May 2, when 550 people had died and 4,926 had been injured, Sudan’s health ministry ceased providing updates on the death toll.
While acting as a trading centre, Khartoum also produces textiles, gums, and glass and serves as a printing and food-processing centre. Petroleum products are now produced in the far north of Khartoum state, providing fuel and jobs for the city. One of Sudan’s largest refineries is located in northern Khartoum.
Food costs are growing across
The stagnating economy of Sudan has now experienced a new shock. In the capital, there have been reports of both record price increases and scarcity of basic staples like bread and veggies. The United Nations humanitarian agency claims that “the price of basic commodities such as fuel, food staples, and water has gone up by 60 percent or more due to supply challenges resulting from the clashes in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan.”
According to a statement released by WFP on Wednesday, the ongoing conflict in Sudan will cause an additional two to 2.5 million people to go hungry in the upcoming months. “This would take acute food insecurity in Sudan to record levels, with over 19 million people affected, two-fifths of the population.”
“The biggest spikes in food insecurity are expected in West Darfur, West Kordofan, Blue Nile, Red Sea and North Darfur states,” it stated. The price of essential food items is expected to increase by 25 per cent in the next three to six months, the statement noted. “If farmers are prevented from accessing their fields and planting key staples between May and July, it will drive food prices even higher.”
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The UN reported earlier this year that “two-thirds of Sudanese” (or roughly 15.8 million people) “had already needed humanitarian aid in 2023, a situation made worse after international aid from donor countries ceased following the 2021 military coup that displaced civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.”
In addition to the millions who have sought refuge at home while airstrikes and shelling rumble through neighborhoods, tens of thousands of people have now fled the carnage in Khartoum and its sister cities of Bahri and Omdurman. The movement of people and commodities has slowed as troops and occasionally gangs patrol the streets. Trade to and from Sudan has been cut off due to the ongoing violence, and until further notice, activities at the key ports have been suspended.
The World Food Programme (WFP) of the UN said on April 16 that it will stop providing relief to Sudan as a result of the deaths of three of its employees in the Darfur region, further complicating matters.
Prior to the Sudanese civil war
The country’s economy has also been disrupted by numerous shocks, most notably the loss of oil revenue following the independence of South Sudan, study says. “The overthrow of Omar Al-Bashir’s authoritarian regime in April 2019 unfolded dramatically on the streets of Khartoum, and it raised hopes for politico-economic change. However, the transition from a political economy centred on resource extraction and rent-seeking to a productive economy built on distributive justice has been slow.”
WFP said, “the depreciation of the Sudanese Pound, in addition to rising food and transportation costs, also makes it harder for families to put food on the table. The conflict in Ukraine is causing spikes in food costs, as Sudan is dependent on wheat imports from the Black Sea region. Interruption to the flow of grain into Sudan will increase prices and make it difficult to import wheat.”
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The Sudan Economic Outlook by the African Development Bank (AfDB) indicated that poverty increased from 55.4% in 2020 to 55.9% in 2021 and unemployment remained high at 18% in 2020, partly due to COVID-19. GDP is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023, driven by agriculture and mining, and by private consumption and investment.
Given that the battles have no apparent conclusion in sight, it is unclear how long supplies will need to last. Two declared cease-fires have broken down due to ongoing combat between the belligerent parties.
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