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Dispute Over Nile And The Essential Future Cooperation

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project so large that it promises to set the nation on a path to industrialization that could lift tens of millions out of poverty. It aspires to provide electricity to approximately 60% of Ethiopian households which are so far not embraced by the power grid, and is part of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s vision to transform the country into a major regional exporter of energy.

Ethiopians see building the dam as a fundamental right, one that could produce electricity to the more than half of Ethiopians who don’t have access at home. Egyptians see their fate potentially falling into external hands. The GERD operations will change downstream flow patterns significantly. This change is raising concern about risks of water shortage, which underscores the importance of arriving at an arrangement with the river’s management.

The country is building the dam on the Blue Nile, which connects the White Nile in Sudan to become the Nile River. Although friction over the apportioning of the waters of the Nile River has existed for many years, the dispute, especially that between Egypt and Ethiopia, significantly escalated when the latter embarked on construction of the dam on the Blue Nile in 2011.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the world’s longest and a lifeline supplying water and electricity to the 10 countries it traverses. Nearly 85% of the river’s flow originates from Ethiopia. Ethiopia, which built the dam largely with its own money, wants the reservoir full and generating the maximum electricity as soon as the dam is complete scheduled now for 2023.

It’s unsurprising that managing the waters of the Nile is a complicated matter. The river extends over 4,100 miles and flows through 11 nations. The Blue Nile, the artery that gives the river more than 80% of its waters, begins in Lake Tana in Ethiopia. It meets the main stream, the White Nile, in Khartoum, Sudan, and then flows on through to Egypt and out to the Mediterranean Sea.

The Nile has been used since antiquity for domestic use, irrigation, and navigation, but large-scale planning and development only started in the late 19th century as British colonial officials proposed a vision of basin-wide management. Ethiopia, however, remained autonomous and was not a party to these ambitions. As countries gained independence, Egypt and Sudan asserted claims to the Nile in their 1959 “Agreement for the Full Utilization of Nile Waters”. Not being signatories, Ethiopia and other upstream states do not recognize this agreement.

Although Egypt has persistently indicated that the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan is the legal framework for the apportioning of the waters of the Nile, Ethiopia and other upstream riparian states reject that contention. The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile River’s waters of Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) for seepage and evaporation, but afforded no water to Ethiopia or other upstream riparian states the sources of most of the water that flows into the Nile. Perhaps even more consequential is the fact that this agreement granted Egypt veto power over future Nile River projects.

Ethiopia has long had development ambitions of its own. In 1964, a study of development opportunities on the Nile within Ethiopia highlighted the potential for hydropower generation and irrigation. Following the fruition of several comparatively smaller hydropower structures in the Nile tributaries.

Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Nile’s riparians. Given agriculture’s importance to pro-poor economic growth, Egypt, which has significant experience and expertise in irrigation agriculture, can share some of that expertise with other countries in exchange for increased trade with them. Another important area of cooperation is research, especially in areas like climate change, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and human rights.

Although the immediate issue at stake securing a technical agreement on the filling of the GERD’s reservoir is among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the broader and longer-term goal should be for all 11 states including Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Eritrea, and South Sudan to agree on a legal regime for the management of this important watercourse. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD.

Ethiopia views the project as essential for its electrification and development and insists that the flow of water downstream will not be affected. In July, 2020, Ethiopia said it had achieved its first year of filling the dam, citing heavy rains, to the dismay of Egypt.

Ethiopia starts filling the Grand Renaissance dam- Minister says

Egypt and Sudan, however, have expressed concerns the dam will reduce the flow of the Nile waters to their countries. Egypt relies heavily on the Nile to supply water for its agriculture and to its more than 100 million people, while Sudan warned that millions of lives would be at “great risk” if Ethiopia unilaterally fills the dam.

In years of normal or above average rainfall that should not be a problem. Key questions remain about how much water Ethiopia will release downstream if a multi-year drought occurs and how the three countries will resolve any future disputes. Ethiopia rejects binding arbitration at the final stage of the project.

Ethiopia has stepped up security around the enormous dam it is constructed on the Blue Nile River for security reasons. Its defensive measures comprise declaring the Benishangul-Gumuz region, where the dam is located, a restricted airspace, and there are also reports that Ethiopia is putting up anti-aircraft batteries surrounding the dam. It perchance fears reconnaissance flights from Egypt.

Negotiations without end

There are still unsolved issues between the three countries along the massive Nile River dam. Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt negotiations on the Grand is filling disagreement. There is not even agreement on how these dams will operate to manage scarce water resources.

Multiple rounds of talks have over the years failed to bring about an accord on the filling and operation of the vast reservoir behind the 145-metre (475-foot) tall hydropower barrage. However, Ethiopia controversially announced it had started filling the $4bn (£3.2bn) dam despite not arriving at an agreement with Egypt and Sudan in July, 2020. This has angered the two countries downstream of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

State media in Ethiopia have pulled back after reports that suggested the dam was being filled deliberately. But this all gives the false belief that filling up the dam will be like filling up a bath and that Ethiopia can turn on and off a tap at will. After Ethiopia said it would not fill the dam any further this year, talks resumed in August, 2020.

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In the first year, the GERD will retain 4.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water taking it up to the height of the lowest point on the dam wall, allowing Ethiopia to test the first set of turbines. On average, the total annual flow of the Blue Nile is 49 (bcm). Meanwhile, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia resume AU-sponsored negotiations on the controversial dam, days after US President Donald Trump warned that Egypt has the right to blow up the dam.

President Trump, fashioning himself as a broker of an agreement, has taken the side of Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, whom he once called his “favorite dictator.”
An unnamed US State Department official said at the time that the decision to pause some funding to Ethiopia was triggered by concerns “due to Ethiopia’s unilateral decision to fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan.” The spokesman for the State Department said it had withheld $264 million in security and development assistance from Ethiopia more than double what has been previously reported.

blow up” the Ethiopian-built dam, despite boasting in January that he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize because he had “made a deal”.

“I saved a big war. I’ve saved a couple of them,” he said, shortly after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abi Ahmed was awarded the prize .

Although Cairo agreed to return to negotiations under the umbrella of the African Union, the first meeting held Oct. 27, 2020, failed to address any of the salient points of controversy. The stance of Egypt and Ethiopia and their vision of the agreement to be signed left unchanged. According to a statement by the Sudanese Ministry of Water Resources, the meeting ended with Sudan agreeing to convene another meeting, during which a clear and detailed agenda would be agreed upon, along with a specific timetable for the negotiation path, and a clear list of the outputs that must be reached with the help of observers.

Now, with Trump’s new remarks, some Ethiopians are urging Ethiopian Americans to help vote him out of office in next month’s election.

Worried by the prospect of further dispute between two of Africa’s most powerful and populous countries, European Union representative Josep Borrell said in a statement that “now is the time for action and not for increasing tensions,” adding that a deal on the dam is within reach.

The statement by Abiy’s office said the talks with Egypt and Sudan have shown significant progress since the African Union has stepped in to oversee them. But in an Amharic language statement, Ahmed used tough language.

“There are two facts that the world has certified. The first is that there has been no one who has lived in peace after provoking Ethiopia. The second is if Ethiopians stand united for one purpose, it’s inevitable they will triumph.” the statement read.

Management of the droughts will require careful coordination if the risks of harmful impacts are to be derogated. Egypt probably would bear the brunt of the consequences should a bargain on the dam’s operation not be attained.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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