An Open Letter to the President and People of Nigeria – Navigating the Complex Web of US-Russia Relations in West Africa

As the 21st century unfolds, West Africa has become a critical theater for global power dynamics, with the United States and Russia vying for influence in ways that deeply impact the sovereignty, security, and development of the region. Nigeria, as the largest economy and a leading voice in Africa, finds itself at the intersection of this global competition. It is imperative that Nigeria approaches these relationships with a clear strategy to safeguard its national interests while fostering sustainable growth and regional stability.

The US and Russia in West Africa: A Collision of Interests

In 2024, the United States and Russia prioritized distinct but overlapping agendas in West Africa. For the US, counterterrorism efforts and securing influence through military and diplomatic partnerships have dominated its strategy. The Pentagon’s repositioning of forces to coastal nations such as Ivory Coast and Benin reflects a determination to curb the rise of extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda, particularly in the Sahel. Simultaneously, the US has sought to counterbalance growing Russian influence through joint military exercises and regional cooperation.

On the other hand, Russia has positioned itself as a defender of African sovereignty and an alternative to Western dominance. Through the establishment of the Africa Corps, military cooperation agreements, and resource extraction deals, Moscow has sought to fill the void left by waning Western influence, particularly after the withdrawal of French forces from several Sahelian nations. Russia’s emphasis on infrastructure, such as nuclear energy projects in Mali, complements its broader effort to solidify economic and political ties across the region.

While these two powers offer different paths for engagement, their competition creates potential flashpoints that Nigeria and the broader West African region must navigate carefully.

National Security: Between Extremism and Militarization

Both the US and Russia frame their involvement in West Africa as a response to security threats. The US focuses on combating terrorism, while Russia offers military partnerships that include mercenary support through entities like the Africa Corps. However, these approaches come with risks that Nigeria must be wary of.

1. US Counterterrorism Efforts:While the US provides training and intelligence support, its reliance on aerial operations and foreign-led strategies risks undermining local ownership of security solutions. Nigeria must avoid becoming overly dependent on US forces and instead push for capacity-building initiatives that empower Nigerian and ECOWAS-led forces.
2. Russian Military Presence: Russia’s reliance on mercenary groups like the Africa Corps may stabilize certain areas in the short term but could lead to long-term instability. As seen in other nations, such forces often operate outside legal frameworks, raising concerns about accountability and human rights abuses. Nigeria must ensure that any security agreements are transparent and prioritize the sovereignty of Nigerian forces.

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Sovereignty: The Hidden Costs of Partnership

The US and Russia both claim to respect African sovereignty, but their actions often tell a different story. US partnerships are often tied to broader geopolitical goals, including countering China and Russia, which may limit Nigeria’s ability to pursue independent policies. Meanwhile, Russia’s resource-driven partnerships risk creating exploitative dependencies that undermine economic autonomy.

Nigeria must take a firm stand in all negotiations to ensure that partnerships serve its long-term development goals. This includes rejecting one-sided agreements, insisting on technology transfers, and promoting local ownership of resources and infrastructure projects.

Economic Interests: Development or Exploitation?

Both the US and Russia are keenly interested in West Africa’s vast natural resources. While the US promotes development through initiatives like Power Africa, its economic engagement often favors American companies and interests. Russia, on the other hand, seeks to exploit resources like uranium, gold, and hydrocarbons, often with minimal regard for environmental and social consequences.

Nigeria must prioritize agreements that benefit its people, ensuring that resource extraction projects include provisions for job creation, environmental protection, and reinvestment in local communities. Additionally, Nigeria should advocate for stronger regional cooperation to negotiate better terms with global powers.

Geopolitical Rivalries: Navigating a New Cold War

The US-Russia rivalry in West Africa risks dragging the region into a modern-day Cold War. Both powers use disinformation and political maneuvering to sway governments and public opinion. For Nigeria, aligning too closely with either side could alienate important partners and limit diplomatic flexibility.

Nigeria should adopt a non-aligned approach, emphasizing multilateralism and African-led solutions. Strengthening ECOWAS and the African Union will be critical to ensuring that West Africa remains a zone of cooperation rather than competition.

What Nigeria Must Do: A Roadmap for the Future

To navigate the complexities of US-Russia relations in West Africa, Nigeria must adopt a proactive and balanced strategy. Here are key steps:

1. Strengthen Regional Security Frameworks: Invest in ECOWAS-led security initiatives to reduce reliance on foreign powers and promote African solutions to African problems.
2. Demand Transparency and Accountability: Ensure that all agreements with the US and Russia are transparent, fair, and aligned with Nigeria’s long-term goals.
3. Promote Economic Diversification: Use foreign partnerships to accelerate economic diversification, reducing dependence on resource extraction and fostering growth in sectors like technology and manufacturing.
4. Invest in Diplomacy: Strengthen Nigeria’s diplomatic capacity to effectively engage with global powers and advocate for the region’s collective interests.
5. Safeguard Sovereignty: Resist any partnership that undermines Nigeria’s sovereignty, whether through excessive military presence, exploitative economic agreements, or undue political influence.

Looking Ahead

Mr. President and the people of Nigeria, the future of US-Russia relations with West Africa presents both opportunities and challenges. As the region becomes a focal point for global competition, Nigeria must lead with vision, unity, and purpose. By prioritizing national interests and championing regional solidarity, we can ensure that Nigeria not only navigates these complexities but emerges stronger, more secure, and more prosperous.

Bukola Adeyemi Oyeniyi, a Patriotic Nigerian & Advocate for Leadership in West Africa.