The Covid-19 pandemic has not only touched on the health of thousands of people, but also food safety. The food crisis is nearly always due to a combination of factors, but for the purpose of response planning, it is significant to establish whether the nature of food crises is mainly related to lack of food accessibility, limited access to food, or severe but localized problems.
Due to climate change and political instability, parts of Africa were already contending with food security issues, causing a recession an unwanted addition to the mix.Net food exporters have remained particularly affected by internal constraints, such as efficiency slumps caused by lockdowns, and external pressures, including the disruption of international supply chains.
Some African governments have been unable to secure adequate food supplies, a situation that has the capability to lead to broader uncertainty and, ultimately, conflict. Nevertheless, Covid-19 is generating opportunities for significant change, and it is hoped that the pandemic will give rise to new procedures for food security.
Approximately 1.7 million people are projected to be affected in the urban informal settlements because of the current Covid-19 pandemic, a United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report says. There have been alarming predictions of 6,000 to 12,000 daily deaths from hunger in the worst-affected countries by the end of the year. National policy responses to restraint the impact of COVID-19 on food markets in Africa have varied, from the removal of value-added taxes on food products to export controls on key food items. For instance, on 26 March, Kenya reduced the value-added tax on all goods from 16% to 14%.
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With fields lying fallow and supply chains collapsing, food is getting expensive and crime is on the rise. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is anticipated to slow from an average of 5.7% per year (2015-2019) to 1.5% in 2020. Kenya’s GDP could contract by 1.0% by the end of the year and the projected recovery to 5.2% growth in 2021 would be delayed [Chart above]. The existing downside risk is a lengthy global recession that undermines the Kenya’s export economy, its tourism sector and inflows of remittances, interrupt domestic economic activity and leads to fiscal slippage.
Around 980 000 people in Kenya were estimated to be severely food insecure in the April-July 2020 period, primarily located in northern and eastern areas as a result of livelihood losses due to floods in late 2019 and localized damages to crops and pastures due to desert locusts, according to FAO. Insufficient equipment and financing have been further worsened by the global travel and import restrictions taken to control the spread of COVID-19, which have resulted in disruptions to supply chains, delaying delivery of product supplies, surveillance equipment and global awareness.
Many small-scale farmers and agricultural workers have been burdened as foreign demand has plummeted for commodities such as flowers, coffee and fish, leading to mass layoffs and pay reductions in key export industries. Food system actors with precarious livelihoods that are already actively marginalised, including informal workers and women have experienced the most from harsh responses to the pandemic. Female workers in the Kenyan flower industry have specified the acute stress caused by financial uncertainty, long working hours and caring for children while schools are closed.
The Kenya Food Security Group (KFFSG) 2020 long rains assessment noted that, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. The above-average March-May long rains led to favourable harvests in most marginal agricultural areas as well as above-average livestock sale values and average milk production, resulting in a dwindling in the population in need corresponding to the preceding 2019 short rains assessment.
COVID-19 pandemic is causing detrimental effects on all economic sectors, farmers are more likely than salary and wage earners to report suffering income shocks. A majority of Kenyan small-scale farmers lack farm inputs and accessibility to markets, putting food availability in jeopardy, a study by Agricultural Policy Research in Africa observed.
There was also restricted access to markets for agricultural produce due to Covid-19. Export restriction policies and hoarding short-circuit trade and distribution, therefore exacerbating the risks of food insecurity, particularly for the Kenya’s most vulnerable populations.
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It remains uncertain which changes will outlast the pandemic, and who will gain or lose. Small-scale transporters may lose out if supply chains shrink, while producers focused on high-value exports will likely lose earnings by pivoting to local markets. However, processors could benefit from shifts in consumer preferences.
As a consequence of the adversities faced by residents in Kenya, governments have put in place range of fiscal and economic policy changes to try and mitigate the impacts. This includes proposals for a post-COVID-19 economic stimulus package of 53.7 billion shillings ($503 million) to sustain businesses that have been hit by the outbreak.
Kenya has fair conditions for cash transfers to the most vulnerable populations. Nonetheless, cash transfers have their constraint as well. Targeting of the most deserving beneficiaries may be a challenge where accurate detection and validation of recipients is hindered by the lack of credible data.
The relief measures came into effect when people had already lost their sources of income, and social protection measures were hardly implemented due to logistical challenges, hence amounting to minimal relief.
Governments and local authorities should strive for more socially blanket and gender-responsive approaches. Greater policy recognition is required of the role that these low-income, but vital actors play in ensuring food security and the operation of supply chains, even under ‘normal’ situation.
Consequently, the ongoing and future government responses should focus on structural changes in social security by evolving responsive packages to cushion members pushed into poverty by such pandemics. Such standards, should also build strong financial institutions to support the recovery of businesses in the medium term, and ensuring the resilience of food supply chains particularly those making accessible nutrient-dense foods.
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