Mali has been witnessing recent civilian mobilization against their heads of state and government based on being deemed as irresponsible towards the spread of rural insurgencies.
A vast country of some 19 million people that neighbours seven states in West Africa, Mali has been engulfed in conflict since 2012, when ethnic Touareg fighters launched a rebellion in the country’s north.
Despite the fact that the intervention of the French military and the election of President Keita ushered in some needed stability to the region, violence from both rebel Tuareg and Islamist groups continue.
President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita took office after winning a 2013 election, presenting himself as a unifying figure and promising to tackle corruption.
In 2015, a peace agreement negotiated between President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and key armed groups affiliated with the Tuareg separatists ushered in a new constitutional order. Since then, the country has nevertheless been beset by instability.
Keita was re-elected in 2018 for another five-year term, but failed to make headway against the conflict that has rendered large parts of the country ungovernable.
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Participation was low, at about 35 percent. Meanwhile, the lead-up to the vote, which was won by Keita’s party, was marred by allegations of vote-buying and intimidation and the kidnapping of opposition leader, Soumaila Cisse.
Even as dissatisfaction over the country’s economic woes, corruption and worsening security situation has been simmering for a while, the trigger for the crisis was a decision by the Constitutional Court in April to overturn the results of parliamentary polls for 31 seats, in a move that saw candidates with Keita’s party get re-elected.
Mali’s positive economic growth in aggregate terms translates into slow per capita growth rates and Mali continues to rank as one of the world’s poorest countries.
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States in the Sahel rank at the bottom of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 2019 Human Development Index respectively, ranking 161st (Mauritania), 182nd (Burkina Faso), 184th (Mali), 187th (Chad) and 189th (Niger) out of 189 countries [Chart above]. The poverty rates of these states vary between 30 and 40 per cent while their growth rates are around 3 per cent in Chad and Mauritania and more than 4 per cent in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, according to World Bank report [Chart below].
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The economy’s heavy reliance on a few key sectors and persistent structural weaknesses have led to growing unemployment.
The gradual reduction in the national poverty headcount measure conceals an increase in the absolute number of poor people and the persistence of poverty in the country’s Northern regions. The food crisis that preceded the recent escalation of conflict further aggravated regional disparities.
Unlikely fundamental change
Keita’s forced removal came after months of a political crisis that stemmed from a disputed parliamentary election. The ousted Malian president, Keita, was released from detention by the military junta on August 27 in line with the request of the ECOWAS leaders.
By contrast, the coup itself seems unlikely to fix anything. The scenes of jubilation in the streets after the coup could give observers the impression that democratic governance has no future in the country.
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Exclusively it highlights a familiar truth that while foreign intervention has its uses, the key to repairing a nation like Mali lies in its own hands, and with its own faltering democratic institutions. The coup, led by Col Malick Diaw deputy head of the Kati camp and another commander, Gen Sadio Camara.
The Western African nation has suffered from a profound disconnect between the priorities of its citizens and those of its political elite. The international actors attempting to help stabilize the situation have in some cases actually widened that gap, by ignoring political dysfunction in favour of a narrow definition of security concerns, and by pretending that shallow, Bamako-centric political processes could meet the country’s desperate governance needs.
Although half of Malians live in extreme poverty and many are without access to education or employment. The economy, dependent on gold mining and agriculture, is vulnerable to commodity price swings and increasing desertification. Armed groups have drawn upon deep resentment toward the state over rampant corruption and human rights abuses by security forces.
In June 2020, anti-government protesters took the streets of the capital demanding Keita’s step down. He remained largely defiant, but in early July attempted to appease the opposition. However, the movement’s leaders insisted that he resign, that parliament to be dissolved and urged civil disobedience.
A cautionary tale
International condemnation of the military coup was swift. Even before Keita’s statement, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) a regional bloc that in recent weeks tried without success to mediate an escalating political impasse between the president and an opposition coalition staging mass rallies demanding his resignation – said it “utterly condemns” his “overthrowing”.
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ECOWAS Special Envoy and former President, Goodluck Jonathan stated that, “what would be acceptable to ECOWAS was an Interim Government, headed by a civilian or retired military officer, to last for six or nine months, and maximum of 12 calendar months. The Interim Government would then organize elections to restore full constitutional order.”
Withal, the junta wants to hold on to power for at least three years before the country returns to civilian rule a demand that leaves ECOWAS in a big puzzle and it puts the political situation in the Sahel at risk.
Relatively than a popular revolution, this coup appears to have been carried out by five colonels, calling themselves the National Commission for the People’s Salvation. This entity is led by Gen. Cheick Fanta Mady Dembele, whom some local commentators see as the real leader of the coup, though he remains in the background.
The coup makers likely have the support of the broad political class, based in Bamako, dissatisfied with the Keita government’s response to popular unrest. The military and the political class, based on past performance, is uninterested in the fundamental social and political change that would be necessary to address the country’s dysfunction.
Some local analysts are suggesting that Gen. Dembele is staying in the background because of fear of the perception that he is “backed” by France. The Macron government is saying that France will remain engaged in Mali, but for how long and under what circumstances remains to be seen.
Saving the country
The discord in Mali continues as frequent and severe droughts have added to the country’s challenges as having COVID-19, which has now reached all areas of the country. The coronavirus has put a strain on the nation’s poor healthcare system and worsened economic decline.
The regional political and economic bloc, Ecowas, has already suspended Mali’s participation in all decision-making bodies. Similarly, on August 26 2020, the 88-member Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) suspended the nation from its membership. Indicating that it would maintain any cooperation that would help the civilian population and a transition to democracy.
If the West African regional mediators agrees to the demands of the coup leaders in Mali to hold on to power until the army see it fit to hold an election it will serve as an opportunity for militaries in the region to alter the structures of power especially if the polls are deemed to be held in conditions that are inconducive for people to vote or worst if the results are deemed invalid and controversially overturned in favor of the incumbent.
What’s needed is a national dialogue on how to move the country forward towards a stable democracy. It is the responsibility of the military group, now in a position of power, to gather opposition parties, terrorist groups from the north and centre of the country together at one table.
While it is increasingly clear that the Malian people regard the political elite as bankrupt and want a rethink of the Malian state. “There is no appetite to rush to elections without addressing the country’s systematic problems.”
An external armed intervention would nevertheless involve considerable risks. The international community must support dialogue between the armed and unarmed actors in the north and south that favours a political solution to the crisis. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) must readjust its mediation efforts to avoid aggravating the already deep fault lines in Malian society. Strengthening the credibility of transitional institutions to restore the state and its security forces are an absolute priority.
It is clear that everything has to be done over again in Mali because the political system is in a coma. The new administration will have to restructure the judicial system, which has been a playground for the previous executives. Public institutions like hospitals and schools are equally required all over the country. To achieve this, it needs to turn to neighbouring Algeria, whose army bears a major responsibility for the instability in northern Mali, including the use of certain terrorist groups.
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In regards to violence from terrorist groups, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on 22 September 2013 stated that the withdrawal of Malian security forces in the north and the drawdown and reconfiguration of Operations Serval and Barkhane have contributed to the increase of extremist violence in Mali.
Mali needs to reinforce its local armies to fight off the terrorists. At the moment, the troops are inexperienced and poorly supervised. Mali’s military needs training to be more effective and committed in its fight against organized crime and in disarming local rebels, whose development is the result of the weakness of the state.
Poorly paid soldiers are charged with defeating the insurgency, but they have been starved or robbed of resources. Reform of the institution is urgently required. There is no lack of military engagement. The French maintain nearly 5,000 troops and the United States has special forces bolstered by two drone bases in neighbouring Niger.
Operation Barkhane, as the counterterrorism effort is known, costs more than $1 billion annually, involves almost five thousand French troops. There are some 15,000 United Nations peacekeepers and a joint G5 force of Sahelian nations. In contrast, the African Union has pledged to deploy several thousand troops.
The EU in 2014 agreed to an additional civilian mission (EUCAP Sahel Mali), sending experts to give advice and training to the internal security forces in Mali, the police, gendarmerie and the national guard. Unfortunately, the European Union has suspended its training missions in Mali after a military coup that removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita from power.
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