The Western Union Company has launched a new report, “The Global Services Trade Revolutions: Fuelling post-pandemic economic recovery and growth,” in partnership with Oxford Economics a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis.
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The report projects the value of international trade in services rising from $6.1 trillion in 2019 to $8.0 trillion by 2025, equating to an increase of almost a third in the value of global flows over this period [Chart above].
It is predicted this growth will be accelerated by the adoption of new technology and digitization of working practices forced by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic which, combined with a shift in attitudes to online interactions, is likely to fuel economic recovery and growth of cross-border trade in services in the coming five years.
Western Union Business Solutions and Oxford Economics’ central forecast scenario envisages a relatively strong economic recovery, but it is also possible that a more pessimistic scenario will unfold, characterized by a steeper near-term contraction and a more prolonged and incomplete recovery (see Comparison of global services export forecasts graph). Still, this scenario would only magnify the relative outperformance of digitally-deliverable services.
Breakdown by sector
The analysis suggests while the global economy is suffering in the short-term, trade in modern digital services will prove comparatively resilient through the current crisis. It estimates that the value of cross-border flows of B2B, ICT and financial services will decline by just 6% in 2020, compared to the value of goods trade, which will decline an estimated 13 per cent.
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Meanwhile, hard-hit traditional services categories such as tourism will decline by around 40 per cent in 2020, while air passenger transport will decline by over 50% [Chart above]. As a share of total services trade, these categories are projected to slide to 39 per cent by 2025 – down from 41 per cent in 2019 [Chart below].
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Breakdown by Geography
The report also analysed these trends across eight large developed economies, finding B2B services will be the main driver of export growth, with financial services also important for key hubs like the USA, UK, Hong Kong and Singapore. Outside this sample, other predicted ‘hotspots’ for digital services export growth over the medium term include Korea and Japan, Australia and New Zealand, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The USA will post the largest overall increase in services exports during the forecast period, the result of its global leadership in many categories of professional services, as well as its investments in digital infrastructure and technological innovation.
Furthermore, it is estimated a broad, multilateral liberalization of trade policies on services could provide an additional 11% boost to the value of global services trade by 2025, which would equal an $890bn increase in the value of these cross-border transactions.
The report, which aims to shine a light on the valuable contribution that global digital services trade brings to the economy now and its potential for the future, uncovers that trade in services has typically been undervalued, when compared to trade in goods or manufacturing.
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The report estimates that services currently account for more than half of all global trade flows, equating to $13.7 trillion of cross-border transactions in 2019. Official statistics state that the share of services in total trade amounted to 24% in 2019, up from 19 per cent in 1995 [Chart above].
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